{"id":1000005190,"date":"2022-05-11T10:48:29","date_gmt":"2022-05-11T08:48:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/?p=1000005190"},"modified":"2022-06-28T11:09:27","modified_gmt":"2022-06-28T09:09:27","slug":"les-futurs-en-transition-1-3-les-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/les-futurs-en-transition-1-3-les-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"Les futurs en transition 1\/3 : Les sc\u00e9narios"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>L\u2019ADEME a souhait\u00e9 soumettre au d\u00e9bat quatre chemins \u201ctypes\u201d coh\u00e9rents qui pr\u00e9sentent de mani\u00e8re volontairement contrast\u00e9e des options \u00e9conomiques, techniques et de soci\u00e9t\u00e9 pour atteindre la neutralit\u00e9 carbone en 2050. Imagin\u00e9s pour la France m\u00e9tropolitaine, ils reposent sur les m\u00eames donn\u00e9es macro\u00e9conomiques, d\u00e9mographiques et d\u2019\u00e9volution climatique (+2,1\u00b0C en 2100). Cependant, ils empruntent des voies distinctes et correspondent \u00e0 des choix de soci\u00e9t\u00e9 diff\u00e9rents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>G\u00e9n\u00e9ration frugale :<\/strong> La transition est conduite principalement par la contrainte et la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9<\/li><li><strong>Coop\u00e9rations territoriales :<\/strong> La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 se transforme dans le cadre d&rsquo;une gouvernance partag\u00e9e<\/li><li><strong>Technologies vertes :<\/strong> L&rsquo;innovation est mise au service des syst\u00e8mes \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e<\/li><li><strong>Pari r\u00e9parateur :<\/strong> La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 place sa confiance dans la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 r\u00e9parer, les syst\u00e8mes sociaux et \u00e9cologiques<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"Transition(s)2050 : les 4 sc\u00e9narios prospectifs de l\u2019ADEME\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/XER_OpLx0Qs?list=PLIGbVmWpW-Wzi831Cb3Mb-G_O-mQe0UP0\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>        I. G\u00c9N\u00c9RATION FRUGALE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Des transformations importantes dans les fa\u00e7ons de se d\u00e9placer, de se chauffer, de s\u2019alimenter, d\u2019acheter et d\u2019utiliser des \u00e9quipements, permettent l\u2019atteinte de la neutralit\u00e9 carbone sans impliquer de technologies de captage et stockage de carbone, non \u00e9prouv\u00e9es et incertaines \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La transition est conduite principalement par la contrainte et par la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9. De nouvelles attentes des consommateurs, mais surtout de nouvelles pratiques, s\u2019expriment rapidement dans les modes de consommation. La croissance de la demande \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique qui \u00e9puise les ressources s\u2019interrompt gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des innovations comportementales, organisationnelles autant que technologiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>70% de r\u00e9duction de la consommation de viande<\/li><li>30% de r\u00e9duction de la surface moyenne des maisons individuelles neuves<\/li><li>70% de l\u2019acier, mais aussi de l\u2019aluminium, du verre, du papier-carton et des plastiques viennent du recyclage<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/transitions2050-infographie-s1.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Contenu embarqu\u00e9 Contenu embarqu\u00e9 Infographie r\u00e9sum\u00e9e du sc\u00e9nario 1..\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-6e8649f8-aebd-43bd-ab86-3e99b69de44b\" href=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/transitions2050-infographie-s1.pdf\">Infographie r\u00e9sum\u00e9e du sc\u00e9nario 1<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/transitions2050-infographie-s1.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-6e8649f8-aebd-43bd-ab86-3e99b69de44b\">T\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-font-size is-style-fill\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/transitions2050.ademe.fr\/generation-frugales\" style=\"border-radius:18px;background-color:#394261\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">D\u00e9couvrir le sc\u00e9nario en d\u00e9tail<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>        II. COOP\u00c9RATIONS TERRITORIALES<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 se transforme dans le cadre d\u2019une gouvernance partag\u00e9e et de coop\u00e9rations territoriales. Organisations non gouvernementales, institutions publiques, secteur priv\u00e9 et soci\u00e9t\u00e9 civile trouvent des voies de coop\u00e9ration pragmatique qui permettent de maintenir la coh\u00e9sion sociale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour atteindre la neutralit\u00e9 carbone, la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 mise sur une \u00e9volution progressive mais \u00e0 un rythme soutenu du syst\u00e8me \u00e9conomique vers une voie durable alliant sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 et efficacit\u00e9. La consommation de biens devient mesur\u00e9e et responsable, le partage se g\u00e9n\u00e9ralise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>L\u2019\u00e9volution des valeurs de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 permet des investissements massifs dans les solutions d\u2019efficacit\u00e9 et d\u2019\u00e9nergies renouvelables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>50% de r\u00e9duction de la consommation de viande<\/li><li>&#8211; 17% de kilom\u00e8tres parcourus par personne<\/li><li>80% de l\u2019acier, mais aussi de l\u2019aluminium, du verre, du papier-carton et des plastiques viennent du recyclage<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/transitions2050-infographie-s2.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Contenu embarqu\u00e9 Contenu embarqu\u00e9 Infographie r\u00e9sum\u00e9e du sc\u00e9nario 2..\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-abc905c7-3a4d-4bfa-8511-c1182115e132\" href=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/transitions2050-infographie-s2.pdf\">Infographie r\u00e9sum\u00e9e du sc\u00e9nario 2<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/transitions2050-infographie-s2.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-abc905c7-3a4d-4bfa-8511-c1182115e132\">T\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-font-size is-style-fill\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/transitions2050.ademe.fr\/cooperations-territoriales\" style=\"border-radius:18px;background-color:#394261\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">D\u00e9couvrir le sc\u00e9nario en d\u00e9tail<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>        III. TECHNOLOGIES VERTES<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le d\u00e9veloppement technologique permet de r\u00e9pondre aux d\u00e9fis environnementaux. Les m\u00e9tropoles se d\u00e9veloppent. Les technologies et le num\u00e9rique, qui permettent l\u2019efficacit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, sont dans tous les secteurs. Les meilleures technologies sont d\u00e9ploy\u00e9es largement et accessibles de mani\u00e8re g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e aux populations solvables.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les mani\u00e8res d\u2019habiter, de se d\u00e9placer ou de travailler se rapprochent beaucoup de celles d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui mais gagnent en sobri\u00e9t\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>30% de r\u00e9duction de la consommation de viande<\/li><li>86% de r\u00e9duction de GES dans l&rsquo;industrie<\/li><li>60% de l\u2019acier, mais aussi de l\u2019aluminium, du verre, du papier-carton et des plastiques viennent du recyclage<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/transitions2050-infographie-s3.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Contenu embarqu\u00e9 Contenu embarqu\u00e9 Infographie r\u00e9sum\u00e9e du sc\u00e9nario 3..\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-8153319e-bae7-4d7b-ab5a-73ff9284cbe6\" href=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/transitions2050-infographie-s3.pdf\">Infographie r\u00e9sum\u00e9e du sc\u00e9nario 3<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/transitions2050-infographie-s3.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-8153319e-bae7-4d7b-ab5a-73ff9284cbe6\">T\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-font-size is-style-fill\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/transitions2050.ademe.fr\/technologies-vertes\" style=\"border-radius:18px;background-color:#394261\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">D\u00e9couvrir le sc\u00e9nario en d\u00e9tail<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>        IV. PARI R\u00c9PARATEUR<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les enjeux \u00e9cologiques globaux sont per\u00e7us comme des contreparties du progr\u00e8s \u00e9conomique et technologique : la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 place sa confiance dans la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 g\u00e9rer, voire \u00e0 r\u00e9parer, les syst\u00e8mes sociaux et \u00e9cologiques avec plus de ressources mat\u00e9rielles et financi\u00e8res pour conserver un monde vivable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les modes de vie du d\u00e9but du XXIe si\u00e8cle sont sauvegard\u00e9s. Mais le foisonnement de biens consomme beaucoup d\u2019\u00e9nergie et de mati\u00e8res avec des impacts potentiellement forts sur l\u2019environnement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>10% de r\u00e9duction de la consommation de viande<\/li><li>19% de consommation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de l&rsquo;industrie<\/li><li>45% de l\u2019acier, mais aussi de l\u2019aluminium, du verre, du papier-carton et des plastiques viennent du recyclage<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/transitions2050-infographie-s4.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Contenu embarqu\u00e9 Contenu embarqu\u00e9 Infographie r\u00e9sum\u00e9e du sc\u00e9nario 4..\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-b0d9e4ee-00e4-4fb6-bfc3-1bcc4f674a3a\" href=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/transitions2050-infographie-s4.pdf\">Infographie r\u00e9sum\u00e9e du sc\u00e9nario 4<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/transitions2050-infographie-s4.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-b0d9e4ee-00e4-4fb6-bfc3-1bcc4f674a3a\">T\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-font-size is-style-fill\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/transitions2050.ademe.fr\/pari-reparateur\" style=\"border-radius:18px;background-color:#394261\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">D\u00e9couvrir le sc\u00e9nario en d\u00e9tail<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>        BILAN COMPAR\u00c9 DES 4 SC\u00c9NARIOS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/BILAN-COMPARE-DES-4-SCENARIOS.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Contenu embarqu\u00e9 Contenu embarqu\u00e9 BILAN-COMPARE-DES-4-SCENARIOS..\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-3bdd9a03-5bec-4a37-a809-891f9d422e5d\" href=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/BILAN-COMPARE-DES-4-SCENARIOS.pdf\">BILAN-COMPARE-DES-4-SCENARIOS<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/BILAN-COMPARE-DES-4-SCENARIOS.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-3bdd9a03-5bec-4a37-a809-891f9d422e5d\">T\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>        D\u00c9COUVREZ LES 4 SC\u00c9NARIOS EN UN CLIN D&rsquo;OEIL<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/transitions2050-infographie-societe2050-4scenarios.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Contenu embarqu\u00e9 Contenu embarqu\u00e9 transitions2050-infographie-societe2050-4scenarios..\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-b257bbed-22a5-4abd-8902-2387ba20c1c2\" href=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/transitions2050-infographie-societe2050-4scenarios.pdf\">transitions2050-infographie-societe2050-4scenarios<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/forum-engagement.org\/2024\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/transitions2050-infographie-societe2050-4scenarios.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-b257bbed-22a5-4abd-8902-2387ba20c1c2\">T\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019ADEME a souhait\u00e9 soumettre au d\u00e9bat quatre chemins \u201ctypes\u201d coh\u00e9rents qui pr\u00e9sentent de mani\u00e8re volontairement contrast\u00e9e des options \u00e9conomiques, techniques et de soci\u00e9t\u00e9 pour atteindre la neutralit\u00e9 carbone en 2050. Imagin\u00e9s pour la France m\u00e9tropolitaine, ils reposent sur les m\u00eames donn\u00e9es macro\u00e9conomiques, d\u00e9mographiques et d\u2019\u00e9volution climatique (+2,1\u00b0C en 2100). Cependant, ils empruntent des voies distinctes [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":1000005200,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[118,155],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-1000005190","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-approfondir","8":"category-engagements-pour-une-strategie-ecologique-performante"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Les futurs en transition 1\/3 : Les sc\u00e9narios | Forum Engagement<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Les futurs en transition 1\/3 : Les sc\u00e9narios | Forum Engagement\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"L\u2019ADEME a souhait\u00e9 soumettre au d\u00e9bat quatre chemins \u201ctypes\u201d coh\u00e9rents qui pr\u00e9sentent de mani\u00e8re volontairement contrast\u00e9e des options \u00e9conomiques, techniques et de soci\u00e9t\u00e9 pour atteindre la neutralit\u00e9 carbone en 2050. Imagin\u00e9s pour la France m\u00e9tropolitaine, ils reposent sur les m\u00eames donn\u00e9es macro\u00e9conomiques, d\u00e9mographiques et d\u2019\u00e9volution climatique (+2,1\u00b0C en 2100). 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